Despite a disastrous home loss to Kosovo that left them bottom of their qualifying group, the Swedish national team still has a narrow, theoretical path to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The Unlikely Path: How Sweden Can Still Reach the 2026 World Cup
A miserable October international window reached a new low for Sweden and star striker Alexander Isak on Monday, as a 1-0 defeat to Kosovo at Gothenburg’s Ullevi Stadium left their direct qualification hopes in tatters.
The result leaves Sweden rooted to the bottom of UEFA Group B with just one point from four matches.
Sweden’s defeat to Kosovo leaves them with one point from their four World Cup qualifying games. pic.twitter.com/HYeS7moQfh
— The Athletic | Football (@TheAthleticFC) October 13, 2025
The Current Group B Standings
The qualifying campaign has been brutal for Jon Dahl Tomasson’s side. The recent loss, sealed by a first-half goal from Kosovo’s Fisnik Asllani, means Sweden has managed only a single draw in its four games so far. The standings paint a bleak picture for direct qualification.
The group winner qualifies automatically for the World Cup, while the runner-up advances to a play-off. With just two matches remaining, Sweden’s chances of a top-two finish are virtually extinguished.
| Team | Games Played | Goal Difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 4 | +9 | 10 |
| Kosovo | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| Slovenia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| Sweden | 4 | -5 | 1 |
With only two matches remaining, Sweden trails second-place Kosovo by six points, making a direct qualification spot nearly impossible.
The Nations League Escape Route
However, a lifeline exists due to the expanded 48-team World Cup format. Sweden’s hope now rests on securing a play-off berth via their performance in the UEFA Nations League.
According to UEFA, the 12 group runners-up from World Cup qualifying will be joined in the play-offs by the four best-ranked group winners of the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League that did not finish their European Qualifiers group stage in first or second place. This backdoor offers Sweden a potential path to redemption.
For this to happen, Sweden must now rely on other results across Europe and hope their Nations League ranking is strong enough to grant them one of the four coveted spots.
The play-offs, scheduled for March 2026, will feature 16 teams drawn into four separate paths, each culminating in a single-leg final to decide the last European qualifiers.
The team’s focus will now shift to its final two group matches in November against Slovenia and Switzerland, where positive results are crucial to bolster their standing for the potential play-off route.
